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Small Oscillations becoming Big issues

This turned out to be WRONG! (But sort of right. Update in May of 2022.)

Update: I was spot on about small oscillations spiralling into larger issues, but only with the caveat of ‘with no feedback.’ This is not obvious when you read the below. I should have made it more clear that small oscillations with feedback stabilise the system over time. (As a self-correction mechanism.) No oscillations make the system more fragile.

image

I think about this chart when things are volatile. What prevents larger spikes? (System destruction.)

Using an analogy of relationships, this oscillation happens all the time. Someone forgetting to wash dishes, someone forgetting an important event.

What prevents this from escalation in successful couples? Feedback.

Without feedback, oscillations continue to increase in size, eventually destroying the relationship. (System.)

Looks like this:

image

Lots of little fights, then 'suddenly' an explosion of the system.

Drafts:

“Consistency before variances”

“Technical debt from short termism”

is this going to error out

I wrote this all before I read

by Nassim Taleb...

I’m happy I delayed the read of his book so I could come to this thought myself. He explains so elegantly in the book that small volatility discourages large volatility.

To ensure a large market implosion, smooth the market out and prevent any small implosions.

To ensure a large and unexpected fight with your partner, refuse all small fights.