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Believability Scores

This word is synonymous with rapport, or reputation. I like it because it implies a bit more of a data-driven approach in weighing someone’s past results.

It originated from Ray Dalio. (More here)

Over time, people tell you things and make predictions and decisions.

Over time, those people will fail/succeed.

It would be nice to have a scoring system based on those choices. After all, you probably shouldn’t be getting advice from someone who has made the wrong choice in 99 of the last 100 situations. (Charisma is counterintuitively bad in this situation, as are fancy slideshows. I often end up believing someone if their presentation is done well, or they are charismatic….regardless of their track record. Amazon spotted this early and switched to 6 pagers.)

With friends, this gets interesting. I have several close friends with abysmal believability scores, I love being around them in part because I get to practice my empathy and try to understand their thinking. They arrive at such unique (and 90% of the time wrong) conclusions.

However, I’ve noticed that these same friends have massive payoffs sometimes. 90% of their day-to-day choices are (for lack of a better word) stupid. But 10% of their choices are counterintuitive and genius. They see the world differently, then use that to their advantage. If they play their hand right, they expose themselves to low risk by thinking differently, and a massive upside when those counter-culture choices pay off. (It’s an

when done well.)

The lesson I learned was not to overdo this scoring. The temptation is to data-fy this, and link everything to hard decisions. The truth is…I don’t want to live a life like that. I don’t want to have to ask my friends (or colleagues) to attach dates to their predictions, or be more precise. Language is, by its nature, not designed for pure logic. (And by association, neither are humans.)

So after a few months of trying to data-fy this, and hating life, I decided that it will just be something I think about. Much like

, I just want a scoring system and word for the track record behind my friends and how they make choices. It adds context () to our interactions because it allows me to empathise with how they are making decisions.